Message Williamson Valley Buildout and Water Facts was posted by almosta native, on 1/31/2009 10:46:02 AM.

Some have speculated about the future development to the east of Williamson Valley Road including Deep Well Ranch, State Trust Lands, and the Cavan Properties, Here is some food for thought about the impact of "paper" water on those plans. CYMPO(Central Yavapai Metropolitan Planning Organization) does not consider water availability when forecasting growth, but it will affect it.

All development inside the Prescott AMA must use "alt-water" [a fancy name for reclaimed sewage, or imported water from another basin i.e. the Big Chino]. The 1999 determination of ground water mining prohibits groundwater from being used for any new development [except exempt wells].

Prescott has enough groundwater left in their ADWR approved portfolio to provide water to every vacant lot in the current city limits. Plus there is enough for some small annexations like the 385 acre commercial property at Side Road on 89a but that is basically "it".

Prescott Valley has sold their rights to effluent to a water speculator and some additional annexation can occur if that speculator chooses to offer water to those areas, but that is all far to the east.

Chino Valley is putting in some sewers to collect sewage and earn recharge credits for a water supply for some new subdivisions, but they will need to import HIA [historically irrigated acreage] water rights from the Big Chino at the Garlic farm to support even a small part of the massive growth they project. None of that will likely affect the WVCO area.

The $200 million Big Chino pipeline would give Prescott about 4500 acre-feet of water which would support perhaps 14000 homes, then it is gone. Once Prescott annexes about 12000 acres [assuming 1.2 houses per acre] all the easy sources for water for new development will be gone. Possibly they can earn alt water credits by capturing roof drains or parking lot runoff, but that is expensive and difficult.

Prescott Valley would get 4000 acre-feet from the pipeline which could translate to perhaps 24,000 homes because they are not encumbered by Prescott's Proposition 400 that requires effluent to be recharged to the aquifer for Safe Yield. None of the PV annexation candidates are even close to 89.

Annexation by Prescott which is an Assured Water Provider means annexed land must be served with Prescott water. It is hard to measure the value of having water versus drilling exempt wells or hauling water, but a conservative value is $30,000 per homesite. Thus the lucky landowner who gets 12,000 acres annexed into Prescott will reap a windfall of $420 million.

It would be interesting to know if the land owners to the east understand what is at stake here, and whether they want to grab this pipeline water or wait perhaps 20+ years for the Colorado River water "pipe-dream?". If the landowners decide they want this windfall, Prescott could set up a bidding war requiring the winner to pay the Prescott $120 million share of the total cost of the pipe.

The impact of all this is that unless the land owners are very aggressive about annexation into Prescott, and willing to underwrite 80% of Prescott's share of the cost of the pipeline, the only development that may occur will be lot splits. That could certainly slow the rate of buildout for any development, and any new roads and traffic on Williamson Valley Road from that area. Of course, if the SRP prevails with their suit challenging Prescott's right to build a pipeline, then the entire AMA will be looking at lot splits after the small remaining ADWR allocations are gone. That will slow the Prescott AMA growth!

The areas outside of the Prescott AMA have no constraints on using groundwater, so those will be the areas of future subdivision growth, if we don't have a 10 year depression. That is American Ranch to Seligman.

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